Overview
The Fremskrittspartiet (FrP), Norway’s right-wing Progress Party, has been a polarizing force in politics for decades. From its humble beginnings to its recent surge in 2025, FrP’s electoral performance offers a fascinating glimpse into voter behavior and political trends. Using a rich dataset of parliamentary, county, and municipal elections (1973–2025) and polls (2010–2025), I’ve analyzed FrP’s highs, lows, and everything in between. Here’s what the numbers reveal about FrP’s journey and what might lie ahead.
The Data: A Snapshot
- Parliamentary Elections: 14 records (1973–2025), with support ranging from 1.9% to 23.8%.
- Local Elections: 26 records (1975–2023), split between county (1.4%–18.5%) and municipal (0.8%–17.5%) elections.
- Polling Data: 144 records (Jan 2010–Sep 2025), fluctuating between 8.2% and 24.6%.
FrP’s Electoral Performance: By the Numbers
FrP performs best in parliamentary elections, averaging 12.6% support, compared to 10.35% in county elections and 9.38% in municipal ones. The party’s parliamentary results are also the most volatile, with a standard deviation of 7.4%, reflecting bigger swings in voter support compared to local elections (volatility of 4.06% for county, 3.51% for municipal).
| Election Type | Mean Support | Median | Volatility | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parliament | 12.60% | 13.8% | 6.21% | 1.9% | 23.8% |
| County | 10.35% | 11.8% | 4.06% | 1.4% | 18.5% |
| Municipal | 9.38% | 10.4% | 3.51% | 0.8% | 17.5% |
Why the stronger showing in national elections? FrP’s platform likely resonates more in high-stakes parliamentary races, where national issues like immigration and taxes take center stage.
Consistency Across Elections
The data shows a strong correlation between election types. County and municipal results are nearly identical (correlation of 0.997), while parliamentary results align closely with both (0.824–0.853). This suggests FrP’s voter base is remarkably consistent, whether casting ballots for local councils or the national parliament.
Electoral Phases: From Fringe to Force
FrP’s parliamentary journey can be split into three distinct phases:
- Marginal (< 5%): 1977–1985, averaging 3.37%. These were FrP’s early, scrappy years, struggling to break through.
- Moderate (5–15%): 1973, 1989, 1993, 2001, 2021, averaging 10.12%. A period of steady growth and consolidation.
- Strong (> 15%): 1997, 2005–2017, 2025, averaging 19.28%. FrP hit its stride, peaking at 23.8% in 2025.
The 2025 result is particularly striking, marking a return to form after a dip in 2021 (11.7%). It’s a testament to FrP’s resilience and ability to rally support.
Polling Insights: A Rollercoaster Ride
From 2010 to 2025, polls show FrP’s support averaging 15%, with a high of 24.6% (Feb 2025) and a low of 8.2% (Jul 2019). Volatility is moderate (standard deviation of 3.9%), and recent polls indicate a 4.5-point uptick in the last 12 surveys. However, the overall trend since 2010 slopes slightly downward (-0.029% per month), a statistically significant shift (p-value 0.0001). This suggests short-term gains but potential long-term challenges.
Can Polls Predict FrP’s Success?
Polls have consistently underestimated FrP’s parliamentary performance. Comparing poll averages to actual results (2013–2025), the average error is 1.41%, with polls underpredicting every time:
| Year | Avg Poll | Actual Result | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 16.06% | 16.3% | 0.24% |
| 2017 | 13.57% | 15.3% | 1.73% |
| 2021 | 9.96% | 11.7% | 1.74% |
| 2025 | 21.89% | 23.8% | 1.91% |
This underestimation could stem from social desirability bias (voters hesitant to admit supporting FrP) or higher-than-expected turnout among FrP’s base.
Key Takeaways
FrP has evolved from a marginal player to a significant force, particularly in parliamentary elections. Its consistent voter base, recent electoral strength, and polling trends paint a complex picture. Polls tend to underestimate FrP, which could reflect methodological challenges or the party’s unique appeal. Looking ahead, predictive models offer mixed signals, urging caution in forecasting FrP’s trajectory.
What’s driving FrP’s resilience? How can pollsters better capture its support? These questions will shape the party’s story in the years to come. For now, FrP remains a dynamic player in Norway’s political landscape, defying expectations and sparking debate.
